Tuesday, June 4, 2019

America China conflict is not about economics


Famous Harvard University historian Professor Graham Allison introduced the idea of Thucydides Trap to explain the current conflict between America and China. Thucydides is considered to be one of the first, if not the first, historian. In his explanation of war between Sparta and Athens he wrote “What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian Power and the fear which this caused in Sparta”. In other words war was started by the then resident power, Sparta, out of fear of a rising power Athens, because Spartans were afraid that Athenians would take over as the dominant power. In current scenario you can replace Sparta with America and Athens with China. Professor Graham presents about a dozen historical cases to support his theory of Thucydides Trap. There are other scholars, like Arthur Waldron who refute his theory. But the fact of the matter is that there is an economic war going on between US and China which might lead to actual war. Surely both America and China are fully aware of Thucydides Trap. So what is going on?